Will Positive Job Figures Put Taper Back on Track

The stock market has plenty to chew on in today’s truncated trading session – from material economic data on the home front to destabilizing noise from Portugal and Egypt. But what really matters today is the broadly positive tone of jobs data from Automatic Data Processing and also from weekly Jobless Claims. We have some more data on tap for release a little later, particularly the service sector ISM reading, but the ADP report provides a reassuring picture of the jobs market and the economy.

From the market’s perspective, however, a positive jobs picture may raise unnerving questions about what the Fed would do to its to its bond-purchase program. Looked at from that Fed prism, this morning’s jobs data could be viewed as market unfriendly.

The ADP report shows a total of 188K private sector jobs in June vs. consensus expectations of about 175K. The May tally was modestly revised lower to 134K from 135K. This report’s primary purpose is to serve as a preview of the non-farm payroll report from the government’s BLS coming out on Friday.

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