Asia FX

Asia FX

The financial markets sought risk on Tuesday following a minor respite in the long-term Eurozone debt crisis and generally good economic data in China, Germany and the US. However, there are no illusions of improvement of the Eurozone crisis and the world economy. The foreign currency futures advanced across the board. The euro suggested a bullish reversal (piercing line), but more proof is needed in these turbulent markets. The US stock indexes, oil, gold and silver closed up as well, but the stock markets gave back about half of their initial gains.

The short-term outlook for the foreign currency futures is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short the European currencies, and long yen and the commodity currencies.
Look for updates on my model’s positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.

Good luck!

Cornelius

www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:

• US: The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 13.5 in January from a revised 8.2 in December.
• Canada: The Bank of Canada kept its rate at 1.0%, as expected.
• Canada: Non-residents added C$15.0 billion to their holdings in November.

Today’s economic calendar:

• Japan: Industrial production for November

EUR – March

Luca Model: Short since December 12

The March euro advanced on Tuesday to sort of forming a bullish reversal formation (piercing line) after hitting a new low for the downtrend on Friday. More proof is needed for a bullish reversal in the euro. Meanwhile, the currency is stuck in an inside range. The euro’s overall outlook remains bearish while the currency is trading below the channel line of a medium-term channel declining since August and well below the 21-day exponential moving average. In addition, there is a massive medium-term bear flag, which targets the 1.2400 area.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.

Immediate resistance is 1.2800. Friday’s high is 1.2884. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2922. Distant resistance is 1.3085.

Immediate support is 1.2735. The low of downtrend is 1.2627.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Sideways

JPY – March

Luca Model: Long since December 26

The March Japanese yen ended well off a two-month high on Tuesday after struggling higher on Monday. Its trading range remains limited. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.

Initial resistance is at 1.3075. A pivot high is at 1.3101.

The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2970. Distant support is at 1.2862.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bullish

Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Bullish

GBP – March

Luca Model: Short since January 5

The March pound climbed up in an inside range but closed off its best levels on Tuesday after marking a new low for the downtrend on Friday. The pound is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and remains in a medium-term declining channel. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.

Immediate resistance is at 1.5400. The next cap is 1.5435. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.5472.

Initial support is at 1.5275. Friday’s low is at 1.5222.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Bearish

CHF – March

Luca Model: Short since January 5

The March Swiss franc advanced in an inside range on Tuesday after having a bearish outside day on Friday. Its recent gains were rejected by the declining 21-day exponential moving average, which has also capped on a closing basis since early November. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend last Monday. The franc remains relatively close to the bottom of the downtrend.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.

The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0623. Further resistance is at 1.0748.

Initial support is at 1.0495. A pivotal low is 1.0431.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

MACD: Slightly bullish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Sideways

CAD – March

Luca Model: Long since January 10

The March Canadian dollar ended off a two-week high on Tuesday after bouncing on Monday and sinking on Friday. Its recent recovery has been rejected by the 100-day exponential moving average and the loonie closed below after breaking above it earlier. The loonie is also challenging the top of its symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a four-week high on Tuesday.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the loonie trades in a medium-term symmetrical triangle. My model is long.

Tuesday’s high is .9876. A pivot high follows at .9923.

The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9777. Friday’s low is .9711. The next floor is .9675.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways

AUD – March

Luca Model: Long since December 20

The March Australian dollar strengthened to a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday, but closed off that level. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways, with the Aussie entrenched in a medium-term triangle, and my model is long.

Tuesday’s high is 1.0378. A pivot high is at 1.0569.

Immediate support is at 1.0295. The next floor is 1.0205. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.0148.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish

MACD: Slightly bullish

Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways

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*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

— CMEGroup